Photo source: SBNation
The Chicago Bulls have taken the league by storm this season after acquiring all-stars Demar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic along with strong, two-way role players like Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso. They’re currently the second seed in the East, ranking 5th in offensive rating and 11th in defensive rating per NBA.com advanced stats. Their success this season is quite incredible because last season, the Bulls had a losing record of 31-41 and ranked 21st in offense and 12th in defense.
Intrigued by the Bulls’ dramatic turnaround this season, I watched the entire Bulls-Hawks game on December 27 to see if I could identify any glaring problems in the Bulls’ offense and defense. Although the Bulls have been playing unbelievably well, they will need to consistently bring their A-game on both sides of the floor to be championship contenders.
Good versus bad possessions
While watching the game, I categorized every single offensive and defensive possession for the Bulls as a good or bad one. For every bad possession, I analyzed an cause for why the possession was bad then kept a tally for each cause. For instance, bad shot selection was the cause for 11 bad offensive possessions. The table below shows my definition of good and bad offensive and defensive possessions.
How can the Bulls improve their offense?
The Bulls had a total of 100 offensive possessions and a whopping 73 of those possessions were good. The Bulls were consistently getting their players good looks at the basket and shots were going in left and right. The team shot a ridiculous 54% from the field (51/93) and 48% from three-point range (18/37). On such an incredibly efficient offensive night, I was curious to see what problems the Bulls offense would have.
As shown in the pie chart below, 78% of the Bulls’ bad offensive possessions were due to poor player judgment (bad shot selection + ball hogging + unforced turnovers). This means that the Bulls’ offensive playbook is tactically sound and the offensive execution was largely solid except for 2 possessions of poor spacing.
My Recommendations
For the Bulls to take their offense to the next level, they need to optimize their shot selection and reduce ball hogging.
The most common example of poor player judgment was bad shot selection (41%). 11 out of 27 bad offensive possessions were caused by a Bulls player forcing a contested shot. This video shows a perfect example of bad shot selection. In transition, Zach Lavine kicks the ball up ahead to Matt Thomas who immediately shoots a highly contested three-pointer with 20 seconds left on the shot clock. With that much time left on the shot clock, the Bulls could have easily run a set half-court play to get a higher quality look.
To optimize their shot selection, head coach Billy Donovan and the rest of the Bulls’ coaching staff need to urge players to look for the best shot possible on every possession. One way to develop this mentality is using the “make the next pass” mindset where players look to make an extra pass to a more open teammate, even if they’re open.
Another notable example of poor player judgment was ball hogging (22%). This issue is somewhat understandable because the Bulls have two great isolation players, DeRozan and Lavine, but sometimes they hold onto the ball for too long, leading to a bad offensive possession.
For example, at the end of the first quarter, DeRozan is winding down the time to take the last shot of the quarter but the Hawks wisely double-team him twice to get the ball out of his hands. On the second double team, DeRozan doesn’t immediately pass the ball when he sees the double team coming. Instead, he tries to escape and he’s forced into a deflected pass to Troy Brown Jr., who hits a contested deep three-pointer. Although the ball went in, this was still a bad offensive possession. However, this could have been a good offensive possession if DeRozan passed to Troy Brown Jr. when he saw the double team coming, as shown in the photo below.
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Going forward, I expect teams to continue to send double teams at DeRozan and Lavine isolation plays so it will be important for DeRozan and Lavine to keep their heads up and pass the ball early.
How can the Bulls improve their defense?
The Bulls had a total of 90 defensive possessions and 52% of those possessions were bad, ending in an easy basket or weakly contested shot for the Hawks. The pie chart below shows the statistical breakdown of the bad defensive possessions. The biggest problems on defense were miscommunication (33%) and poor help defense (26%).
The largest problem by percentage was miscommunication PNR (pick and roll). Miscommunication PNR often results in two players guarding one offensive player, usually the pick and roll ball handler, leaving the roller wide open for a shot. In the linked video, Troy Brown Jr. and Tyler Cook miscommunicate, causing both of them to defend Hawks player Bogdanović, leaving the roller, Dieng, wide open for an easy layup. Brown Jr. should have told Cook to stay on Dieng because he was within arms reach of Bogdanović. When guarding pick and rolls, one of the most common plays in basketball, both defenders need to constantly communicate with each other, informing each other whether they need help or not.
Another problem the Bulls faced when defending pick and rolls was overplaying the screen. Bulls defenders would anticipate a ball screen for Trae Young and shift their bodies in that direction, allowing Young to blow past them in the opposite direction. In this clip, Troy Brown Jr. does exactly that and Young is able to get an easy floater but he misses. Vucevic is occupied by Young suddenly darting to the basket and doesn’t box out Capela, who grabs Young’s missed shot and scores an easy layup.
Overhelping was another big problem on defense, contributing to the larger problem of poor help defense. Overhelping occurs when teams overcommit to defending one offensive option, leaving another option open. In this video, Trae Young is coming fast off a ball screen from Capela. The weak side help defender, Derrick Jones Jr., sinks down to the paint to cover Capela’s roll to the basket because Trae loves to lob the ball to Capela. However, Jones Jr. is overhelping because Vucevic is already guarding Capela. As a result, Jones Jr.’s defensive assignment, Bogdanović, is wide open for a three-pointer which he drains.
The Solution: Returning to Fundamentals
Looking at the main defensive and offensive problems that the Bulls have, the path forward should focus on returning to the nitty-gritty fundamentals that high school basketball coaches champion daily: constant communication and unselfish basketball. For more quality NBA analysis, subscribe to 2 Way BBall.
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